By Allison Butcher, Senior Policy Analyst, MBAKS

On Wednesday, January 31, the Master Builders Association of King and Snohomish Counties (MBAKS) kicked off its first general membership meeting of the year—an economic forecast breakfast presented by the association’s Sales & Marketing Council.

The breakfast took place at The Westin Bellevue and featured presentations by Metrostudy Regional Director Todd Britsch and Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor Dan Becraft, C(k)P QPFC.

Becraft touched on highlights of Morgan Stanley’s investment outlook for 2018. In short, the report states that global economic expansion delivered strong returns last year but we should not expect the same in 2018. Morgan Stanley is not anticipating a recession this year, but rather that markets will begin to normalize.

The forecast already factors in recent tax cuts, Becraft said. A look back at the U.S. stock market over the last 37 years shows that tax cuts are not correlated to market performance. In the year after President Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts took effect in the 1980s, for example, the market dropped.

Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor Dan Becraft, C(k)P QPFC (Alabastro Photography)

Becraft offered additional observations, including ways in which demographics influence a country’s economy, predictions on interest rates (he expects they will stay low and may even be cut), and more.

The biggest risk to our economy going forward, he noted, is our national debt, which stands at $20 trillion. However, China’s national debt is significantly higher. Whereas the United States’ debt-to-GDP ratio is around 100 percent, the ratio in China is closer to 460 percent. Becraft said some are speculating this could lead to a move by China within 36 months to repatriate capital that has flowed out of their country in recent years. If this were to happen, it could result in investments being pulled out of real estate in the United States, including the Seattle market, and transferred back to China.

Britsch focused on economic and housing data in the Puget Sound region and provided compelling information in his presentation as well, particularly related to the lack of future housing inventories.

Britsch’s presentation highlighted the fact that population and job growth continue to be very strong in the Puget Sound region, with 137,000 jobs added since 2015 and continued low unemployment in King and Snohomish counties. Furthermore, data from the Department of Licensing show that net driver in-migration into the region has averaged more than 6,300 per month since 2012, for a total of 460,000 new drivers from outside the area.

Metrostudy Regional Director Todd Britsch (Alabastro Photography)

Britsch also stressed that housing supply is not keeping up with demand. Looking at the driver license data, he estimates this growth has created a demand for 100,000 owner-occupied homes between 2012 and 2017. However, during this time, we have built and sold roughly 60,000 homes, creating a housing supply shortfall and causing upward pressure on home prices. The average list price for new construction within formal subdivisions, Britsch stated, has risen 20 percent in Snohomish County and 24 percent in King County year over year.

Britsch warned we are running out of land at a rapid pace. With 10 months’ supply of vacant developed lots in Snohomish County, he said we’re at "crisis level" in terms of lot inventory. The North Creek market area, which has been very robust in recent years, has dried up, Britsch said.

Since 2009, the entire Puget Sound region has had a net loss of 3,018 lots coming out of the system, not to be replaced. More importantly, in that same time frame, the available finished lot inventory has declined by 17,879. Britsch also pointed to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data, which shows King and Snohomish counties have just over a two-week supply of homes for sale.

Although the current housing market is showing signs of weakening, Britsch believes it will remain strong. The housing market is all part of a cycle and we can expect an adjustment in sales, he said. Britsch predicts core areas from King County to South Snohomish County will continue to see double-digit appreciation due to lack of inventory.

Founded in 1909, the Master Builders Association of King and Snohomish Counties (MBAKS) has grown to become the largest residential homebuilders association in the United States. With 2,900 member companies, the association is dedicated to membership value, housing advocacy, community service, and financial stewardship throughout the Puget Sound region.

By MBAKS Senior Policy Analyst Allison Butcher

At the end of the first quarter of 2018, King County is leading the way in building permit activity in the region, with single family permits up 19 percent and multifamily permits up 25 percent compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, single-family permits have dropped 19 percent in Snohomish County and multifamily permits are down 58 percent year-over-year.  For the three-county region as a whole (King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties), permits are up 7 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

The Builders' Bulletin is intended to provide a convenient way to track housing in our market and includes information from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, State of the Cities Data Systems, Office of Financial Management and the Washington State Employment Security Department.

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By MBAKS Content Strategist James Slone

A home is not truly complete until its unique details are set in place. Crystalline shower doors, eye-popping accent walls, and ornate tile floors transform mere rooms into showpieces offering a lifetime of delights.

It’s not easy putting on the finishing touches. Tile, glass, and paint may be surfaces, but the work they require is anything but skin-deep. I spoke to three trades professionals to find out how they make functional spaces extraordinary.

Bath project showing off the painstaking work, masterful skill, and artisanal creativity that goes into Mohler Design’s vividly eye-catching tile creations. Photo credit: Cindy Apple Photography

Mohler Design—Striving for Happy Customers

There is nothing like a glimmering backsplash beckoning from the kitchen or intricately patterned entryway tiles inviting you home. Since 2001, Mohler Design has offered exquisitely detailed tiling services throughout the Seattle area that make everyday spaces stand out.

Founder Bill Mohler tells me that when he started the company in 2001, “It was just me and two other installers.” But skill, talent, and ambition quickly attracted a highly skilled team of craftspeople united by a passion for creating inspiring designs for kitchens, bathrooms, flooring, and an array of other surfaces.

“We pride ourselves on education and training and making sure all our [tile] setters are updated on current installation methods,” says Mohler. “We work with all types of tiles from classic to modern to genuinely unique designs.”

Custom work is a pleasure for Mohler Design and the company never lacks for exciting new projects. “We typically complete over 100 a year,” Bill explains. A project can require as few as one installer, or several if it’s a large custom build. Either way, “It is essential that we work together with other contractors to ensure that projects run smoothly and on time.”

For Bill, there’s never a dull moment working with individual homeowners or designers and builders on a diverse spectrum of projects. “Our projects can vary greatly in size and detail from a small backsplash to a large custom home build with tiling in multiple rooms.”

With two decades of experience and a reputation for excellence, Mohler Design has established strong working relations with the finest tile and stone distributors in the industry and have collaborated with top designers, builders, and general construction firms in the area.

Bill takes great pride in the company’s long-standing relationships throughout the community. “We have been honored,” he says, “to work on some very cool projects over these past 20 years.” Quite a few have netted significant accolades, including several Trades Excellence in Remodeling Awards from MBAKS.

Awards are great, says Bill, but they’re not the biggest motivator. “When all is said and done, we strive to ensure our clients are happy.”

Distinctive Glass—A Legacy in Glass

“We ask a lot of questions, listen carefully, and do our best to help the client get what they envision. It’s so fun to see [a client’s] dream bathroom completed with a really nice shower door or mirror. It puts that finishing touch on their home.” The effort involved is worth it but takes time.

“An average shower door takes about four to five weeks to fabricate, but some custom showers can take as long as eight. With sales, estimating, production, and installation, it takes seven to nine different people to finish an install. We complete about 15 per day.”

The company has a sixth sense for what the customer wants, and experience means they can deliver. “We have 10 employees who’ve been with us for 20 years,” says Brian. “What makes the company is the quality of people we have working with us.”

Brian’s passion for glass is a family legacy. “I’m a third-generation glass guy,” he says. “My father and grandfather were lifelong glass guys. Both of my boys are now in the industry and love it. My co-founder and business partner Dennis Vogt started in the 1970s.

“Dennis and I had a vision of being known for the highest-quality glass work in the state. We try very hard for that.” Now, says Brian, they’re doing it in more than one state.

A longtime Distinctive Glass employee Matt Dunston recently opened a new location in Arizona to bring the shop’s high-quality work to the Grand Canyon state. “It is doing very well, and we are excited about what the future will bring.”

Hedlund Painting put the finishing touches on this stunning Kirkland update with gorgeous interior and exterior paint that makes the home seem lighter than air.

Hedlund Painting—Picture-Perfect Finishes

A house is just a structure before you add paint. With vivid colors and tactile textures, Lynnwood-based Hedlund Painting transforms mere collections of floors, walls, beams, and ceilings into homes brimming with vibrancy and life.

Their luminous work has won numerous awards, including several Best of Houzz Awards and Angi Super Service Awards in 2019, 2020, and 2021.

Hedlund Painting doesn’t just paint. They offer a full range of services, including interior and exterior staining, cabinetry refinishing, millwork, drywall repair, and wall texturing—and they do it all on point. But the power of their work is about more than mere craft and artistry. It’s also a matter of pride.

The company’s success, says owner Christopher Whitman, lies in their dedication to customer service and quality results. With years of experience painting thousands of households, the company has developed highly efficient work processes that keep projects on-time and on-budget.

Their website declares, “We are not looking for a single job; we build relationships that last.” This is accomplished by “showing up when we say we will, respecting the job site and everyone we interact with, and by being honest and ethical.”

To ensure that the end result meets or exceeds client expectations, Hedlund maintains strong lines of communication with clients, emphasizing punctuality, cost-effective technique, and perfect finishes.

Whitman says that Hedlund’s team, both office and field staff, work closely together. “Office Manager Carmen oversees internal operations while Charlie, Rigo, and Zak provide estimates and other customer-facing services. Vince and Erika handle day-to-day field tasks such as scheduling the crews, material orders, and onsite customer relations. All in all, it’s a team effort and we strive to emphasize that to each other and our clients.”

From the moment they contact the client, Hedlund initiates a “very friendly and informative” process. “When conducting the walk-through, we provide the client a detailed and organized list of their requests and our tasks.” The client agrees to the work to be completed before a single brush is dipped.

“Upon agreement, the task list is given to the project managers who execute all the details and tasks discussed during the initial walk-through.” The work is always aligned with the customer’s wishes. What they dream up is what they get.

Christopher loves the process. “I have a lot of fun helping clients achieve the changes they’re looking for. Painting as a whole is a reasonably cost-effective way to make huge aesthetic changes in your home. I personally find making that connection on a personal basis very rewarding.”

For Hedlund Painting, that human connection is the real finishing touch.