King County home prices hit their lowest point for July since 2012

Is that faint rumbling we hear in the distance carryover from Seafair Weekend and its barrage of air and sea entertainment? Or could it be that ever-elusive housing bubble finally popping and coming back down to normal levels of absurdity?

After all, even the Blue Angels have left town.

Maybe they saw the inevitable spin back down to earth. Or perhaps we’re all just blowing this housing cooldown out of proportion. Whatever stance you take, one thing’s certain: the Seattle-area real estate market has fallen to its lowest point in four years, shedding a crevice of light for homebuyers and inducing a fleeting shock of panic for owners sitting on their plots of gold-laden land.

The number of homes for sale throughout King County rose a staggering 48 percent in July as compared to a year ago, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, which means inventory now exceeds 2015 levels. The 48 percent jump is the biggest we’ve seen in a decade and is mostly due to homes that have been waiting patiently for owners on the market. All signs point to a noteworthy dip in demand, as July home sales reached their lowest prince since July of 2012, when the market was at a low point.

How big was the decrease? King County’s July median home price of $699,000 is down $27,000 from the record highs we saw earlier this year. Last year, July was the most expensive month of the year.

In Seattle, home prices were down $25,000, making the median $805,000. Eastside prices also saw a dip, falling $30,000 in just a month to a median price of $947,000. Snohomish County, not one to be left out, also saw an increase in active listings, up almost 16 percent from this time last year.

Have we finally hit the ceiling? If we have, it’s not just regional; the national trend at the moment is one of a long-awaited inventory uptick just as hotspots like Seattle, Silicon Valley, and Austin are finally cooling off—metaphorically, of course (enjoy 90 degrees this week). Seattle is unique in the fact that its home sales saw the second-biggest jump in the country, according to info gathered from realtor.com, right on the heels of our neighbors down south in Silicon Valley.

Why is this happening?

Those in the know point to stabilized rents, high mortgage rates, slightly less frenetic population and job growth, and waning interest from Chinese buyers.

Many are already shouting, “I told you so!” at the top of their lungs but, as always, time will tell if we’ll continue this down-surge or if we’re all just suffering from a curable case of “buyer fatigue.” In the meantime, inventory levels are still an issue; while King County has doubled its March inventory, we’re still significantly below a healthy four-to-five months of inventory, according to Robert Wassa of the Northwest MLS board of directors. And people still need a place to live in some capacity.

We’ll be hearing a lot more about our region’s housing trends, whichever way they end up going, in the weeks and months ahead. Stay tuned.

Originally reported by Mike Rosenberg in the Seattle Times, “More Seattle-area home sellers lower list prices as market cools way down,” August 6

Data gathered from realtor.com and the Northwest Multiple Listing Service

By MBAKS Senior Policy Analyst Allison Butcher

Low Inventory Driving Home Prices Up

The latest Builder's Bulletin for February 2017 shows a continued decline in the inventory of homes for sale in King and Snohomish counties and prices still on the rise. According to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, in December 2016, both counties had less than a months' supply of inventory, far below the four to six month level considered by many industry analysts as an indicator of a healthy market. Meanwhile, the December median home price for single-family homes and condos was up 12.2 percent year-over-year in King County and 12.4 percent in Snohomish County.

The Builders' Bulletin is intended to provide a convenient way to track housing in our market and includes information from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, U.S. Census Bureau, Office of Financial Management and the Washington State Employment Security Department.

Download this month's report:

By MBAKS Senior Policy Analyst Allison Butcher

Statistics from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, highlighted in the October Builder’s Bulletin, show an increasing supply of homes for sale in the month of August. King County had 1.92 months’ supply of inventory, up from 0.93 months’ supply a year ago. Snohomish County had 1.70 months of inventory, up from 1.11 a year ago. This increase in supply, while still low, has moderated price increases.

The Builders' Bulletin is intended to provide a convenient way to track housing in our market and includes information from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, State of the Cities Data Systems, Office of Financial Management and the Washington State Employment Security Department.

Download this month's report: