By MBAKS Senior Policy Analyst Allison Butcher

Single family permits are down 10 percent in the Seattle metro area the first 9 months of the year, compared to the same period last year. The single family permit decline is led by Snohomish County, which is down 25 percent, followed by Pierce County, which is down 14 percent. Within the three-county metro area, the only county to see a slight increase in single family permits through September 2018 was King County, where permits were up four percent.

Meanwhile, multifamily permits are up three percent throughout the metro area. While King County saw a nine percent decline in multifamily permits during the first three quarters of 2018, Snohomish County has experienced an 80 percent increase in multifamily permit activity, and Pierce County is up 35 percent.

The Builders' Bulletin is intended to provide a convenient way to track housing in our market and includes information from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, State of the Cities Data Systems, Office of Financial Management and the Washington State Employment Security Department.

Download this month's report:

By MBAKS Senior Policy Analyst Allison Butcher

The housing and economic indicators featured in this month’s Builders Bulletin reflect the state of the market just prior to the start of the COVID-19 crisis in the Puget Sound region. It shows housing inventories still very low in our two counties, with 1.17 months’ supply in King County and 0.93 months’ supply in Snohomish County. Data from the Northwest Multiple Listing Services also show median home prices holding steady in February—$615,000 in King County and $494,263 in Snohomish County. The February unemployment rate was a near record-low 2.6% for Seattle/Bellevue/Everett and statewide construction employment was 225,200.

The Builder's Bulletin is intended to provide a convenient way to track housing in our market and includes information from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, State of the Cities Data Systems, Office of Financial Management and the Washington State Employment Security Department.

Download this month's report:

A recent Construction Coverage study finds that the median home age in Seattle is 37 years old, built around the late 1980s. That's older than every fast-growing metro we compete with for workers and families: Austin (19), Raleigh (22), Charlotte (26), Phoenix (29), Denver (35), Salt Lake City (35). Meanwhile, Seattle's population grew 25% from 2010 to 2020. More people, fewer new homes per person, and older housing stock every year. Old housing isn't just expensive to maintain — it's housing we can't add to, and every year the gap between what we have and what we need widens.

A Fox 13 story covering the study tells us what's happening. It doesn't get into why — or what to do. So, let's tackle both.

Why are Seattle's homes older than homes in fast-growing peer cities?

It isn't geography or demand. Austin builds in a tough climate. Phoenix keeps building despite water problems. The difference is what we've allowed to be built.

Seattle has stacked decades of choices that made it harder, slower, and more expensive to build:

• Zoning that locked the map in place. Most of Seattle's residential land has been reserved for one detached house per lot. You can't refresh the housing stock that way.
• Permits that take longer than projects can wait. An 18-to-36-month permit timeline means projects get shelved when interest rates move. Slow permits are a downzone.
• Fees stacked on fees. Impact fees, affordability charges, and review fees pile up. Every $1,000 added to the cost of a home prices more families out.
• Decisions made case by case. Design review, environmental appeals, and judgment calls add risk that builders price in or walk away from.
• Rules that make lots unbuildable. Tree codes, critical-area buffers, and undergrounding requirements can take a small infill project from possible to impossible.

This shows up in real bills. According to the Construction Coverage study's analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, pre-1940 homes cost about 10 times as much in routine maintenance as new ones — roughly $1,615 a year vs. $164 — and are nearly 30 times more likely to be in inadequate condition.

What can we do about it?

Aging housing is a policy outcome. It can be a different one.

MBAKS uses a simple test we call the Housing Policy Filter. Before adopting any code change, fee, or process, ask: does it reduce buildable land, add complexity or uncertainty, diminish property rights, or increase costs to construct?

If yes to any of those, fewer homes get built.

The Filter in practice:

• Put HB 1110 to work. The new middle-housing zoning lands faster when local rules are clear, approvals are by-right, and permit timelines are met.
• Trade judgment calls for clear rules. Predictable, objective standards produce more housing than case-by-case review.
• Speed up permits. Defined, predictable timelines and resources at the bottleneck keep projects moving.
• Right-size fees. Audit what each fee funds — and the homes it prevents.
• Fix the small-lot rules. Tune tree codes, setbacks, buffers, and road widths to the housing we need now.

Austin and Raleigh and Charlotte didn't end up with new housing stock by accident. Seattle didn't end up with old housing stock by accident, either. The difference is what each place chooses to allow.

More homes. Better outcomes. That's the test.

View the MBAKS Barriers and Solutions guide. Questions? policy@mbaks.com.